2017 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

14·29

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

40

Model margin

+3.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.076
  • 39.2%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.89CPOE+3.69
  • 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:25737Punt0–7
PITQ1 5:2134Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:44853Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 0:10575Touchdown7–14
CINQ2 12:521270Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 7:12965Field goal14–17
CINQ2 1:5030Punt14–17
PITQ2 1:28732Field goal14–20
CINQ3 15:0039Punt14–20
PITQ3 13:201054Field goal14–23
CINQ3 7:2328Turnover14–23
PITQ3 6:4839Field goal14–26
CINQ3 5:28519Turnover14–26
PITQ3 2:59621Turnover on downs14–26
CINQ4 14:5730Punt14–26
PITQ4 12:4639Punt14–26
CINQ4 11:053-24Punt14–26
PITQ4 9:20965Field goal14–29
CINQ4 5:1448Turnover on downs14–29
PITQ4 3:27214Turnover on downs14–29
CINQ4 0:3800End of half14–29

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/3014022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon7486.90
Andy Dalton382.70
Giovani Bernard382.70
Jeremy Hill471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green36410
Brandon LaFell47281
Tyler Kroft44231
Alex Erickson11220
Joe Mixon33200
C.J. Uzomah1270
Cody Core0200
Josh Malone0100
Giovani Bernard13-10

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/2422420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell351343.80
James Conner3196.30
Martavis Bryant122.00
Terrell Watson100.00
Ben Roethlisberger3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown410651
Le'Veon Bell33580
Darrius Heyward-Bey11440
JuJu Smith-Schuster23391
Vance McDonald23370
Xavier Grimble11120
Eli Rogers12100
Martavis Bryant1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.52