Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
40
Model margin
+3.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.076
- 39.2%Success rate46.0%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.89CPOE+3.69
- 34.7%Third-down rate43.8%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.49Points / drive2.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/30 | 140 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/24 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 35 | 134 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Watson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 10 | 65 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.52