Closing spread
KC -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/36 | 342 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 8 | 125 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 63 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.