Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
40
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.125
- 38.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.000EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.198
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.98CPOE-0.06
- 36.0%Third-down rate31.0%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.51Points / drive1.31
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 17/27 | 209 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 13/21 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 12/16 | 138 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 23 | 51 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 6 | 9 | 85 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99