2017 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

28·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

40

Model margin

+2.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.125
  • 38.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.198
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.98CPOE-0.06
  • 36.0%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.31
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 12:55575Touchdown7–7
NYJQ1 10:4431Punt7–7
MIAQ1 9:133-1Punt7–7
NYJQ1 6:21970Touchdown14–7
MIAQ1 1:27718Punt14–7
NYJQ2 13:0634Punt14–7
MIAQ2 11:251137Touchdown14–14
NYJQ2 6:14641Punt14–14
MIAQ2 2:4422Turnover14–14
NYJQ2 2:3221Touchdown21–14
MIAQ2 1:5157Punt21–14
NYJQ2 0:2800End of half21–14
MIAQ3 15:00827Punt21–14
NYJQ3 10:51651Punt21–14
MIAQ3 8:04544Turnover21–14
NYJQ3 5:46834Touchdown28–14
MIAQ3 1:41419Punt28–14
NYJQ4 14:453-1Punt28–14
MIAQ4 12:48442Touchdown28–21
NYJQ4 11:213-5Punt28–21
MIAQ4 9:44956Touchdown28–28
NYJQ4 6:1946Punt28–28
MIAQ4 4:03725Punt28–28
NYJQ4 0:4710Turnover28–28
MIAQ4 0:3936Field goal28–31
NYJQ4 0:222-4Turnover28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown17/2720931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell9434.80
Matt Forte7415.90
Elijah McGuire372.30
Josh McCown310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte55410
Bilal Powell22400
Robbie Chosen35351
Jermaine Kearse14291
Eric Tomlinson11260
Austin Seferian-Jenkins35211
Jeremy Kerley24170

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore13/2118821
Jay Cutler12/1613821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi23512.20
Damien Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry711931
Kenny Stills69852
Julius Thomas34580
Jay Ajayi34260
Anthony Fasano34251
Leonte Carroo11210
Damien Williams23180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.99