2017 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.051
- 40.8%Success rate43.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.00CPOE+0.38
- 32.5%Third-down rate42.0%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.61Points / drive2.12
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/40 | 303 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 10 | 64 | 2 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 17/25 | 268 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 64 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.08