2017 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

24·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.051
  • 40.8%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.00CPOE+0.38
  • 32.5%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.12
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00766Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 11:1855Turnover3–0
WASQ1 8:3931Punt3–0
PHIQ1 6:463-6Punt3–0
WASQ1 5:05535Punt3–0
PHIQ1 2:19833Field goal3–3
WASQ2 13:15876Touchdown10–3
PHIQ2 9:1433Punt10–3
WASQ2 8:1739Punt10–3
PHIQ2 6:20780Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 3:1939Punt10–10
PHIQ2 1:52870Touchdown10–17
WASQ2 0:2200End of half10–17
PHIQ3 15:001086Touchdown10–24
WASQ3 9:43617Punt10–24
PHIQ3 6:463-3Punt10–24
WASQ3 4:48852Touchdown17–24
PHIQ3 0:44975Touchdown17–31
WASQ4 11:10614Turnover17–31
PHIQ4 8:3932Field goal17–34
WASQ4 6:191066Touchdown24–34
PHIQ4 3:17527Missed field goal24–34
WASQ4 1:4540Turnover on downs24–34
PHIQ4 0:1200End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/4030331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson7385.40
Kirk Cousins3186.00
Rob Kelley7162.30
Jamison Crowder133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis44670
Jordan Reed810642
Josh Doctson35390
Niles Paul11320
Jamison Crowder26280
Chris Thompson55261
Ryan Grant33190
Terrelle Pryor24140
Rob Kelley22140

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz17/2526841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Wentz8637.90
LeGarrette Blount14292.10
Wendell Smallwood8253.10
Corey Clement166.00
Kenjon Barner242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz55891
Mack Hollins11641
Nelson Agholor45451
Alshon Jeffery26370
Wendell Smallwood22140
Corey Clement1191
Trey Burton1170
Brent Celek1230
Torrey Smith0100
Marcus Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.08