2017 · Week 8 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.051
- 43.8%Success rate40.8%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.041
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.45CPOE+1.00
- 43.3%Third-down rate32.5%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.85Points / drive1.61
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/22 | 143 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 33 | 150 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 26/39 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Kelley | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 9 | 13 | 123 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.38