2017 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

33·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.051
  • 43.8%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.041
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.45CPOE+1.00
  • 43.3%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.61
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:0014Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:5239Field goal0–3
DALQ1 13:13580Touchdown7–3
WASQ1 10:32760Touchdown7–10
DALQ1 6:361559Missed field goal7–10
WASQ2 12:57638Field goal7–13
DALQ2 10:0447Punt7–13
WASQ2 8:00755Missed field goal7–13
DALQ2 2:5922Touchdown14–13
WASQ2 2:20517Punt14–13
DALQ2 0:59414Punt14–13
WASQ2 0:191-7End of half14–13
WASQ3 15:00624Turnover14–13
DALQ3 12:23827Field goal17–13
WASQ3 8:3900Field goal17–13
DALQ3 8:3146Field goal20–13
WASQ3 6:2338Punt20–13
DALQ3 4:40948Field goal23–13
WASQ3 0:3834Punt23–13
DALQ4 13:36829Field goal26–13
WASQ4 8:431563Touchdown26–19
DALQ4 4:35831Punt26–19
WASQ4 0:5424Opp touchdown33–19
WASQ4 0:21110End of half33–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/2214300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott331504.52
Dak Prescott3165.30
Alfred Morris331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant46390
Terrance Williams23360
Jason Witten35310
Geoff Swaim11180
Cole Beasley2380
Ryan Switzer1170
Ezekiel Elliott1240
Brice Butler0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins26/3926311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rob Kelley8192.41
Chris Thompson4184.50
Jamison Crowder2126.00
Kirk Cousins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder9131230
Chris Thompson89760
Ryan Grant57380
Vernon Davis24200
Jordan Reed1150
Josh Doctson1311
Terrelle Pryor0100
Rob Kelley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.38