2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

20·10

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

39

Model margin

+1.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.041
  • 38.8%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -4.25CPOE-3.27
  • 35.7%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:00460Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 13:01325Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 11:3836Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 10:1531Punt7–0
ARIQ1 9:183-3Punt7–0
SFQ1 7:43526Punt7–0
ARIQ1 5:2939Punt7–0
SFQ1 3:363-6Punt7–0
ARIQ1 2:0430Punt7–0
SFQ1 1:38568Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 14:55775Touchdown14–3
SFQ2 11:0434Punt14–3
ARIQ2 10:1538Punt14–3
SFQ2 8:4330Punt14–3
ARIQ2 7:451058Turnover14–3
SFQ2 2:561147Punt14–3
ARIQ2 0:2600End of half14–3
SFQ3 15:001375Touchdown14–10
ARIQ3 9:431026Punt14–10
SFQ3 6:2835Punt14–10
ARIQ3 4:551165Field goal17–10
SFQ4 13:313-8Punt17–10
ARIQ4 12:351134Field goal20–10
SFQ4 5:33843Turnover on downs20–10
ARIQ4 3:4311Turnover20–10
SFQ4 3:36742Turnover20–10
ARIQ4 2:28532Punt20–10
SFQ4 1:4747Turnover on downs20–10
ARIQ4 0:5900End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton15/3020121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson371594.30
Kerwynn Williams263.00
Drew Stanton420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald59700
John Brown14520
Jermaine Gresham23231
Troy Niklas13160
J.J. Nelson12150
Andre Ellington23140
Adrian Peterson2480
Jaron Brown1131

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard24/5129401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde12413.40
C.J. Beathard3165.31
Matt Breida111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carlos Hyde911840
Marquise Goodwin28680
Kendrick Bourne26390
George Kittle35270
Trent Taylor23220
Aldrick Robinson28180
Matt Breida24180
Garrett Celek14130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.74
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.58