Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
+1.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.041
- 38.8%Success rate41.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -4.25CPOE-3.27
- 35.7%Third-down rate39.5%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.20Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 15/30 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 37 | 159 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 24/51 | 294 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 9 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.74
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.58