Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.046
- 41.6%Success rate39.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.170
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.68CPOE-1.91
- 42.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.51
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/32 | 197 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 5 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 30/42 | 358 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 24 | 53 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 9 | 13 | 135 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 7 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22