2011 · Week 2

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

13·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.046
  • 41.6%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.170
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.68CPOE-1.91
  • 42.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.51
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
BALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:2935Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:2732Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:2423Turnover0–0
BALQ1 9:4136Turnover0–0
TENQ1 8:14634Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:40614Punt0–0
TENQ1 2:31665Missed field goal0–0
BALQ2 14:55510Turnover0–0
TENQ2 12:36827Field goal0–3
BALQ2 8:32786Touchdown7–3
TENQ2 4:381075Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 0:403-8Field goal10–10
TENQ3 15:00875Touchdown10–17
BALQ3 11:10415Punt10–17
TENQ3 8:541165Field goal10–20
BALQ3 3:25628Punt10–20
TENQ3 0:5737Punt10–20
BALQ4 14:5321Turnover10–20
TENQ4 14:0035Field goal10–23
BALQ4 12:001077Field goal13–23
TENQ4 6:581371Field goal13–26
BALQ4 0:261-5End of half13–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/3219712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice13433.30
Ricky Williams420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray Rice58531
Anquan Boldin37460
Lee Evans25450
Ed Dickson26250
Dennis Pitta23240

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck30/4235811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson24532.20
Javon Ringer5214.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt9131351
Nate Washington711990
Jared Cook23370
Javon Ringer22300
Lavelle Hawkins34220
Chris Johnson35120
Marc Mariani2290
Craig Stevens1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22