Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.023
- 40.8%Success rate45.2%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- +0.41CPOE-1.27
- 38.4%Third-down rate39.5%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.77
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/33 | 361 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 21 | 48 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 7 | 11 | 107 | 2 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 26/38 | 245 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 7 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.19