2017 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

30·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.023
  • 40.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.032
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +0.41CPOE-1.27
  • 38.4%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.77
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:001458Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 6:44956Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 1:4536Punt7–0
DETQ2 14:50829Missed field goal7–0
GBQ2 10:3131Punt7–0
DETQ2 9:371391Touchdown14–0
GBQ2 2:471168Field goal14–3
DETQ3 15:001050Field goal17–3
GBQ3 9:06517Turnover on downs17–3
DETQ3 7:23420Turnover17–3
GBQ3 5:2933Punt17–3
DETQ3 4:231163Field goal20–3
GBQ4 12:31778Touchdown20–10
DETQ4 9:52475Touchdown27–10
GBQ4 8:06616Turnover on downs27–10
DETQ4 6:03933Field goal30–10
GBQ4 1:42764Touchdown30–17

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/3336120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah21482.31
Theo Riddick5112.20
Jamal Agnew144.00
Dwayne Washington510.20
Matthew Stafford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate791130
Marvin Jones7111072
Theo Riddick44620
Eric Ebron34350
T.J. Jones22290
Darren Fells11100
Ameer Abdullah1190

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley26/3824500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery5336.60
Brett Hundley4225.51
Aaron Jones5122.40
Trevor Davis199.00
Randall Cobb111.00
Jamaal Williams111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb55580
Davante Adams710530
Jordy Nelson47350
Lance Kendricks23320
Jamaal Williams22310
Ty Montgomery11180
Richard Rodgers1250
Trevor Davis1150
Geronimo Allison0100
Aaron Jones25-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.19