2017 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

23·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.112
  • 45.2%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.019EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.130
  • 6.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.27CPOE-3.10
  • 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.22
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:571065Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 7:20872Field goal3–3
GBQ1 2:1539Punt3–3
CHIQ2 15:003-2Punt3–3
GBQ2 13:24450Touchdown10–3
CHIQ2 11:41875Turnover10–3
GBQ2 7:4259Punt10–3
CHIQ2 5:063-8Punt10–3
GBQ2 3:143-4Punt10–3
CHIQ2 1:371039Field goal10–6
GBQ3 15:00940Field goal13–6
CHIQ3 10:163-2Punt13–6
GBQ3 8:09610Punt13–6
CHIQ3 4:0232Punt13–6
GBQ3 2:29926Field goal16–6
CHIQ4 13:09565Touchdown16–13
GBQ4 10:39875Touchdown23–13
CHIQ4 5:29749Field goal23–16
GBQ4 3:19863Missed field goal23–16
CHIQ4 1:03518Turnover on downs23–16
GBQ4 0:2800End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley18/2521210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams20673.40
Ty Montgomery6549.01
Brett Hundley2168.00
Aaron Jones3124.00
Randall Cobb482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams58901
Randall Cobb34520
Jordy Nelson34200
Ty Montgomery22140
Lance Kendricks1290
Richard Rodgers1180
Jamaal Williams1170
Aaron Jones1100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky21/3529710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard15543.60
Tarik Cohen111.00
Benny Cunningham100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman68880
Josh Bellamy27571
Kendall Wright58460
Adam Shaheen22390
Benny Cunningham34320
Daniel Brown23230
Tarik Cohen12100
Tre McBride0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+3.04