Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.112
- 45.2%Success rate38.5%
- -0.019EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.130
- 6.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.27CPOE-3.10
- 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.77Points / drive1.22
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 18/25 | 212 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 20 | 67 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Brett Hundley | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 21/35 | 297 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 6 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+3.04