2017 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

22·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

University of Phoenix Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

40

Model margin

+1.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.129
  • 41.3%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.207
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.52CPOE-4.25
  • 37.4%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:003-7Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:101-4Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 13:0132Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:01715Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:07951Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 5:071339Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 14:53634Punt9–7
ARIQ2 11:001-1Safety9–7
SEAQ2 10:533-8Punt9–7
ARIQ2 9:0534Punt9–7
SEAQ2 7:371171Field goal12–7
ARIQ2 1:52637Turnover on downs12–7
SEAQ2 0:46447Field goal15–7
ARIQ2 0:0200End of half15–7
ARIQ3 15:001239Field goal15–10
SEAQ3 8:325-5Punt15–10
ARIQ3 6:05741Punt15–10
SEAQ3 3:1233Punt15–10
ARIQ3 2:0630Punt15–10
SEAQ3 1:43895Touchdown22–10
ARIQ4 12:493-7Punt22–10
SEAQ4 11:4230Punt22–10
ARIQ4 9:231366Turnover on downs22–10
SEAQ4 4:1535Punt22–10
ARIQ4 2:281161Touchdown22–16
SEAQ4 0:2000End of half22–16

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3223820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls10272.70
J.D. McKissic5265.20
Russell Wilson5193.80
C.J. Prosise331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin56950
Paul Richardson12430
Jimmy Graham69272
Nick Vannett22220
J.D. McKissic45200
Tyler Lockett12160
Thomas Rawls22120
Amara Darboh1230

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton24/4727310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson21291.40
Andre Ellington242.01
Drew Stanton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald10141130
Jermaine Gresham57641
John Brown26270
Andre Ellington36260
J.J. Nelson14170
Adrian Peterson12130
Jaron Brown26130
Troy Niklas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.38