Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
40
Model margin
+1.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.129
- 41.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.207
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.52CPOE-4.25
- 37.4%Third-down rate35.7%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.68Points / drive1.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/32 | 238 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 9 | 27 | 2 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 24/47 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 29 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 14 | 113 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| John Brown | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.38