2017 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.112
  • 40.8%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +0.41CPOE-3.10
  • 38.4%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.22
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001270Field goal0–3
DETQ1 8:21734Turnover0–3
CHIQ1 4:46355Touchdown0–10
DETQ1 3:23618Punt0–10
CHIQ1 0:06426Opp touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 14:00973Touchdown7–17
DETQ2 8:30895Touchdown14–17
CHIQ2 5:1737Punt14–17
DETQ2 3:35872Touchdown21–17
CHIQ2 0:2015End of half21–17
DETQ3 15:004-1Punt21–17
CHIQ3 13:1930Punt21–17
DETQ3 12:30615Punt21–17
CHIQ3 9:07630Punt21–17
DETQ3 5:55314Punt21–17
CHIQ3 4:18414Punt21–17
DETQ3 2:061154Field goal24–17
CHIQ4 10:01863Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 5:02952Field goal27–24
CHIQ4 1:351055Missed field goal27–24
DETQ4 0:0300End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3129920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick9353.90
Ameer Abdullah11222.00
Jamal Agnew155.00
Matthew Stafford331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones47851
T.J. Jones45550
Kenny Golladay23520
Eric Ebron47490
Golden Tate34320
Ameer Abdullah22131
Darren Fells1190
Theo Riddick1240

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky18/3017910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard151258.31
Mitchell Trubisky6538.80
Tarik Cohen9444.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman35430
Adam Shaheen44411
Kendall Wright24250
Daniel Brown25230
Benny Cunningham12180
Tarik Cohen46150
Tre McBride22140
Markus Wheaton0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.30