Closing spread
DET -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.112
- 40.8%Success rate38.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.41CPOE-3.10
- 38.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.22
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/31 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 18/30 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 15 | 125 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Tre McBride | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.30