Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
48
Model margin
-0.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play+0.008
- 43.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.093EPA / rush+0.027
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.38CPOE-0.45
- 42.0%Third-down rate43.3%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.12Points / drive1.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 14/27 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 7 | 91 | 13.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 57 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/31 | 145 | 0 | 3 |
| Cooper Rush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 8 | 14 | 63 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.64