2017 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

37·9

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

48

Model margin

-0.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.051EPA / play+0.008
  • 43.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.027
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.38CPOE-0.45
  • 42.0%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:0037Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 13:22870Touchdown7–3
DALQ1 9:031065Field goal7–6
PHIQ1 3:16532Punt7–6
DALQ1 1:2120Turnover7–6
PHIQ1 1:073-1Missed field goal7–6
DALQ1 0:1336Punt7–6
PHIQ2 14:1435Punt7–6
DALQ2 13:1132Punt7–6
PHIQ2 12:1435Punt7–6
DALQ2 10:373-7Turnover7–6
PHIQ2 9:0432Punt7–6
DALQ2 8:141454Field goal7–9
PHIQ2 0:5532Punt7–9
DALQ2 0:0200End of half7–9
PHIQ3 15:00875Touchdown15–9
DALQ3 10:56532Punt15–9
PHIQ3 8:08590Touchdown23–9
DALQ3 5:40520Punt23–9
PHIQ3 2:501185Touchdown29–9
DALQ4 12:023-3Opp touchdown37–9
DALQ4 10:43855Turnover37–9
PHIQ4 7:01521Punt37–9
DALQ4 3:143-5Punt37–9
PHIQ4 1:5100End of half37–9

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz14/2716820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi79113.00
LeGarrette Blount13574.40
Corey Clement6508.31
Carson Wentz6132.20
Kenjon Barner144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery47671
Brent Celek12280
Torrey Smith34281
Kenjon Barner11220
Jay Ajayi11100
Zach Ertz2580
Mack Hollins1170
Nelson Agholor15-20

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott18/3114503
Cooper Rush0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17915.40
Rod Smith8111.40
Dak Prescott2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant814630
Terrance Williams47350
Brice Butler22190
Noah Brown11140
Jason Witten1170
Cole Beasley2470
James Hanna0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.64