2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

16·30

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.146EPA / play-0.088
  • 38.4%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.150
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -5.42CPOE-1.89
  • 33.6%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.49
  • 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:001161Field goal3–0
CINQ1 9:17975Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 5:08879Missed field goal3–7
CINQ1 0:091159Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 9:143-9Punt3–10
CINQ2 7:31418Field goal3–13
CLEQ2 6:1234Punt3–13
CINQ2 5:15537Field goal3–16
CLEQ2 2:06980Field goal6–16
CINQ3 15:001174Touchdown6–23
CLEQ3 10:211069Field goal9–23
CINQ3 4:3334Punt9–23
CLEQ3 2:2430Punt9–23
CINQ3 1:02737Punt9–23
CLEQ4 12:261589Touchdown16–23
CINQ4 6:57860Touchdown16–30
CLEQ4 2:57732Turnover on downs16–30
CINQ4 1:361-1End of half16–30

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer18/3126800
Cody Kessler0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell16955.90
DeShone Kizer9394.31
Duke Johnson6355.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Coleman38640
Kenny Britt22520
David Njoku44470
Seth DeValve22330
Duke Johnson45320
Rashard Higgins23300
Isaiah Crowell12100
Bryce Treggs0100
Danny Vitale0100
Ricardo Louis0200

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2821420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon231145.01
Andy Dalton4266.50
Giovani Bernard3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green58660
Joe Mixon33510
Brandon LaFell36330
Alex Erickson11180
Tyler Boyd22171
Giovani Bernard11150
Tyler Kroft34141
Josh Malone0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53