Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play-0.088
- 38.4%Success rate39.2%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.42CPOE-1.89
- 33.6%Third-down rate34.7%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.07Points / drive1.49
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 18/31 | 268 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/28 | 214 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 23 | 114 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53