Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
-0.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.046
- 42.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.278
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +3.66CPOE+0.41
- 44.3%Third-down rate38.4%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 2.02Points / drive1.78
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/30 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 4 | 63 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/35 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 9 | 109 | 2 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73