2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

30·23

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

-0.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.046
  • 42.5%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.278
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +3.66CPOE+0.41
  • 44.3%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.78
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:281475Touchdown6–0
DETQ1 5:29217Turnover6–0
MINQ1 4:51339Touchdown13–0
DETQ1 3:5545Punt13–0
MINQ1 2:2339Punt13–0
DETQ1 0:481364Field goal13–3
MINQ2 10:151452Missed field goal13–3
DETQ2 3:0230Punt13–3
MINQ2 1:58569Touchdown20–3
DETQ2 0:37547Touchdown20–10
MINQ2 0:1000End of half20–10
MINQ3 15:00475Touchdown27–10
DETQ3 12:521161Field goal27–13
MINQ3 7:0856Punt27–13
DETQ3 5:04835Field goal27–16
MINQ3 1:033-9Punt27–16
DETQ4 14:49339Touchdown27–23
MINQ4 14:16942Punt27–23
DETQ4 8:2839Punt27–23
MINQ4 6:21845Field goal30–23
DETQ4 3:4243Turnover30–23
MINQ4 2:5039End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/3028220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray20844.21
Jerick McKinnon13231.80
Case Keenum7202.91
Stefon Diggs199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen811890
Stefon Diggs57660
Kyle Rudolph44632
Jerick McKinnon13310
Jarius Wright23250
Michael Floyd1180
Latavius Murray0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/3525021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick5204.00
Ameer Abdullah6142.30
Golden Tate2136.50
Zach Zenner166.00
Matthew Stafford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones691092
Kenny Golladay24610
Eric Ebron44340
Ameer Abdullah35290
Theo Riddick12100
Golden Tate4870
Darren Fells0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.73