2016 · Week 12

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

21·49

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+9.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSaints
  • -0.203EPA / play+0.100
  • 36.6%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.012
  • 6.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -6.92CPOE+4.38
  • 32.2%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 0.97Points / drive2.39
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 14–9 since 1999

RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9NO @ LA10–34RAMS
2024 · W13LA @ NO21–14RAMS
2023 · W16NO @ LA22–30RAMS
2022 · W11LA @ NO20–27NO
2019 · W2NO @ LA9–27RAMS
2018 · playoffsLA @ NO26–23RAMS
2018 · W9LA @ NO35–45NO
2017 · W12NO @ LA20–26RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NO
LAQ1 15:00675Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 12:08628Punt7–0
LAQ1 9:1048Punt7–0
NOQ1 7:18951Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 2:45520Punt7–7
NOQ2 14:541-8Turnover13–7
LAQ2 14:4716Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 14:43975Touchdown14–14
LAQ2 9:381-17Turnover14–14
NOQ2 9:25410Touchdown14–21
LAQ2 7:46416Punt14–21
NOQ2 6:09964Touchdown14–28
LAQ2 2:24779Touchdown21–28
NOQ2 0:55422End of half21–28
NOQ3 15:00475Touchdown21–35
LAQ3 12:58414Turnover21–35
NOQ3 11:3537Punt21–35
LAQ3 9:58419Punt21–35
NOQ3 6:59792Touchdown21–42
LAQ3 3:42616Punt21–42
NOQ4 15:00891Touchdown21–49
LAQ4 10:1549Turnover on downs21–49
NOQ4 8:3234Punt21–49
LAQ4 6:503-7Punt21–49
NOQ4 5:24644Punt21–49
LAQ4 1:5339End of half21–49

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/3221431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley13503.80
Tavon Austin11010.00
Malcolm Brown393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt510521
Lance Kendricks47511
Tavon Austin44451
Todd Gurley44390
Benny Cunningham11120
Bradley Marquez11120
Brian Quick1330
Tyler Higbee0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3631040
Willie Snead1/15010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram1414610.41
Tim Hightower15513.40
Tommylee Lewis177.00
Drew Brees111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas9101082
Josh Hill66740
Coby Fleener44590
Tim Hightower22541
Willie Snead57380
Mark Ingram12211
Brandon Coleman1131
Tommylee Lewis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.52.5%5.1%6.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

73.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.02
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+9.77