Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+9.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.100
- 36.6%Success rate48.2%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.012
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -6.92CPOE+4.38
- 32.2%Third-down rate49.0%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 0.97Points / drive2.39
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/32 | 214 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 7 | 51 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/36 | 310 | 4 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1/1 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 146 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 9 | 10 | 108 | 2 |
| Josh Hill | 6 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.02
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+9.77