2017 · Week 12 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
44
Model margin
+2.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.051
- 41.1%Success rate40.8%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.203
- 6.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.91CPOE+1.00
- 32.5%Third-down rate32.5%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.19Points / drive1.61
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/27 | 113 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavarres King | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Travis Rudolph | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 19/31 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 10 | 141 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67