2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

10·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

44

Model margin

+2.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.051
  • 41.1%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.203
  • 6.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -3.91CPOE+1.00
  • 32.5%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 51.3%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.61
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:2139Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:43512Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:53312Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:56411Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:40832Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 1:58522Punt0–0
WASQ2 14:1138Punt0–0
NYGQ2 12:291670Field goal3–0
WASQ2 4:00751Punt3–0
NYGQ2 1:3033Punt3–0
WASQ2 1:0441Field goal3–3
NYGQ2 0:1300End of half3–3
WASQ3 15:00620Punt3–3
NYGQ3 11:5146Punt3–3
WASQ3 10:03660Touchdown3–10
NYGQ3 6:3232Punt3–10
WASQ3 5:29519Opp touchdown10–10
WASQ3 2:52946Punt10–10
NYGQ4 13:0038Punt10–10
WASQ4 11:4139Punt10–10
NYGQ4 10:0631Punt10–10
WASQ4 8:33955Touchdown10–17
NYGQ4 3:315-6Turnover on downs10–17
WASQ4 2:1234Field goal10–20
NYGQ4 1:49336Turnover10–20
WASQ4 1:0800End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning13/2711301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman9374.10
Orleans Darkwa11302.70
Shane Vereen3186.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tavarres King24360
Roger Lewis37260
Evan Engram37180
Shane Vereen1290
Rhett Ellison1190
Orleans Darkwa1190
Wayne Gallman2260
Travis Rudolph0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins19/3124221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine241004.20
Byron Marshall4184.50
Kirk Cousins341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder7101411
Samaje Perine34300
Josh Doctson24281
Niles Paul35160
Maurice Harris22120
Byron Marshall12120
Ryan Grant1230
Vernon Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.67