Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
45
Model margin
+2.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.041
- 41.3%Success rate41.2%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.110
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.52CPOE-3.27
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.68Points / drive1.75
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/34 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 22/38 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2/2 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 7 | 13 | 21 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.42