2017 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·13

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

45

Model margin

+2.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.041
  • 41.3%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.110
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +4.52CPOE-3.27
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.75
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:5435Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:27843Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 9:30611Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:341138Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:0840Punt0–0
SEAQ1 0:0236Punt0–0
SFQ2 14:1020Turnover0–0
SEAQ2 14:01216Touchdown7–0
SFQ2 13:23419Punt7–0
SEAQ2 11:45515Punt7–0
SFQ2 9:26418Punt7–0
SEAQ2 7:2637Punt7–0
SFQ2 5:54632Punt7–0
SEAQ2 2:2145Punt7–0
SFQ2 1:39647Field goal7–3
SEAQ2 0:0400End of half7–3
SFQ3 15:00951Field goal7–6
SEAQ3 9:19671Touchdown14–6
SFQ3 6:3333Punt14–6
SEAQ3 5:341244Touchdown21–6
SFQ4 14:57618Punt21–6
SEAQ4 11:47740Punt21–6
SFQ4 6:573-3Punt21–6
SEAQ4 5:09534Field goal24–6
SFQ4 3:271479Touchdown24–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3422821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy17462.70
Russell Wilson7253.61
J.D. McKissic4225.50
Tyler Lockett122.00
Doug Baldwin1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Richardson47700
Jimmy Graham36341
Tanner McEvoy22310
Nick Vannett24291
Doug Baldwin23250
J.D. McKissic47240
Eddie Lacy33150
Tyler Lockett0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard22/3820101
Jimmy Garoppolo2/21810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde16472.90
C.J. Beathard6213.50
Matt Breida11212.00
Jimmy Garoppolo144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin46780
Trent Taylor23350
Kendrick Bourne22220
Carlos Hyde713210
Louis Murphy24141
George Kittle12140
Matt Breida11120
Aldrick Robinson1380
Garrett Celek2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

4.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.42