2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

32·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Blaine Gabbert

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

43

Model margin

-1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.129
  • 43.3%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.207
  • 11.4%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.32CPOE-4.25
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.20
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 29–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6ARI @ LA18–16ARI
2025 · W18ARI @ LA20–37RAMS
2025 · W14LA @ ARI45–17RAMS
2024 · W17ARI @ LA9–13RAMS
2024 · W2LA @ ARI10–41ARI
2023 · W12LA @ ARI37–14RAMS
2023 · W6ARI @ LA9–26RAMS
2022 · W10ARI @ LA27–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–ARI
LAQ1 15:00536Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 11:4110Turnover3–0
LAQ1 11:21723Touchdown9–0
ARIQ1 7:5138Punt9–0
LAQ1 5:51633Turnover9–0
ARIQ1 3:4031Opp touchdown16–0
ARIQ1 2:45622Punt16–0
LAQ2 14:4635Punt16–0
ARIQ2 13:451062Touchdown16–7
LAQ2 7:3839Punt16–7
ARIQ2 5:53670Touchdown16–13
LAQ2 3:25873Field goal19–13
ARIQ3 15:00618Punt19–13
LAQ3 11:4337Punt19–13
ARIQ3 10:043-1Punt19–13
LAQ3 8:07735Touchdown26–13
ARIQ3 5:071061Field goal26–16
LAQ4 14:553-6Punt26–16
ARIQ4 12:55628Missed field goal26–16
LAQ4 10:52752Field goal29–16
ARIQ4 6:183-13Punt29–16
LAQ4 4:29636Field goal32–16
ARIQ4 1:55749End of half32–16

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3122021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley19743.90
Tavon Austin382.70
Pharoh Cooper166.00
Jared Goff122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Gurley67840
Cooper Kupp56680
Sammy Watkins34381
Derek Carrier11140
Gerald Everett2471
Tyler Higbee1160
Josh Reynolds2660
Tavon Austin0100
Pharoh Cooper11-30

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert18/3222112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams16976.10
Blaine Gabbert3124.00
D.J. Foster252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald1010981
Ricky Seals-Jones25440
J.J. Nelson28420
D.J. Foster25200
Jermaine Gresham23170
Chad Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.15