Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.129
- 43.3%Success rate38.8%
- +0.131EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.207
- 11.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.32CPOE-4.25
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.27Points / drive1.20
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/31 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 18/32 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 16 | 97 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 10 | 10 | 98 | 1 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.15