2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.088
  • 46.0%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.150
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +3.69CPOE-1.89
  • 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.49
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:00528Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:52427Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:48733Punt0–3
CINQ1 7:151285Touchdown0–10
PITQ1 0:41412Punt0–10
CINQ2 13:29743Punt0–10
PITQ2 9:27620Punt0–10
CINQ2 6:441798Touchdown0–17
PITQ2 0:31333Field goal3–17
CINQ3 15:0038Punt3–17
PITQ3 13:56978Touchdown10–17
CINQ3 8:581062Field goal10–20
PITQ3 3:33412Punt10–20
CINQ3 1:10517Punt10–20
PITQ4 14:361144Field goal13–20
CINQ4 10:0738Punt13–20
PITQ4 8:011080Touchdown20–20
CINQ4 3:5135Punt20–20
PITQ4 2:42734Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4029021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell18764.20
James Conner3124.00
Ben Roethlisberger144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Le'Veon Bell561061
Antonio Brown8161011
Martavis Bryant46400
JuJu Smith-Schuster45170
Jesse James11130
Xavier Grimble1390
Eli Rogers1240

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3623420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13775.90
Joe Mixon7344.90
Andy Dalton2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green716772
Brandon LaFell47550
Tyler Kroft22300
C.J. Uzomah11210
Giovani Bernard23190
Tyler Boyd23150
Josh Malone2290
Joe Mixon1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.60