Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.088
- 46.0%Success rate39.2%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.69CPOE-1.89
- 43.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.22Points / drive1.49
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/40 | 290 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 8 | 16 | 101 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/36 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 16 | 77 | 2 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60