2017 · Week 13 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.008
- 40.8%Success rate43.8%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.203EPA / rush+0.027
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- +1.00CPOE-0.45
- 32.5%Third-down rate43.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.85
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 26/37 | 251 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 5 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Byron Marshall | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 11/22 | 102 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02