2017 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

14·38

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.008
  • 40.8%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.203EPA / rush+0.027
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +1.00CPOE-0.45
  • 32.5%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.85
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:24524Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:103-6Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:52718Turnover0–0
DALQ1 6:0139Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:2531Punt0–0
WASQ1 3:2538Punt0–0
DALQ1 1:521253Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 10:4331Turnover0–7
DALQ2 9:43618Field goal0–10
WASQ2 5:2933Opp touchdown0–17
WASQ2 3:46975Touchdown7–17
DALQ2 0:59624Turnover on downs7–17
WASQ3 15:00621Punt7–17
DALQ3 12:01518Punt7–17
WASQ3 10:05731Punt7–17
DALQ3 5:211184Touchdown7–24
WASQ4 14:53987Touchdown14–24
DALQ4 11:281159Touchdown14–31
WASQ4 4:5540Turnover14–31
DALQ4 4:16411Touchdown14–38
WASQ4 2:37412End of half14–38

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins26/3725122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine12383.20
Byron Marshall4123.00
Kirk Cousins362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Grant59761
Jamison Crowder57670
Samaje Perine33310
Josh Doctson35261
Byron Marshall56240
Vernon Davis22150
Niles Paul33120
Maurice Harris0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott11/2210220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris271274.71
Dak Prescott5285.60
Rod Smith10272.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant57611
Terrance Williams23210
Cole Beasley23140
Jason Witten1581
Alfred Morris0100
Brice Butler0100
Rod Smith0100
Noah Brown11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.02