Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
43
Model margin
+2.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.076
- 42.5%Success rate46.0%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.33CPOE+3.69
- 35.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.79Points / drive2.22
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/35 | 269 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 18 | 120 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 11 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 44/66 | 506 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 2 |
| James Conner | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 18 | 213 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 10 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 9 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 6 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.04