2017 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

38·39

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

43

Model margin

+2.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.5%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.33CPOE+3.69
  • 35.3%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.22
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00848Turnover0–0
PITQ1 10:24859Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 6:59834Punt0–7
PITQ1 4:211385Touchdown0–14
BALQ2 13:11978Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 9:07854Field goal7–17
BALQ2 4:14585Touchdown14–17
PITQ2 1:53850Field goal14–20
BALQ2 0:0100End of half14–20
PITQ3 15:00512Punt14–20
BALQ3 12:13546Field goal17–20
PITQ3 10:0633Punt17–20
BALQ3 8:26760Touchdown24–20
PITQ3 5:2036Punt24–20
BALQ3 3:56428Touchdown31–20
PITQ3 2:431495Field goal31–23
BALQ4 12:1630Punt31–23
PITQ4 10:29758Touchdown31–29
BALQ4 9:15721Touchdown38–29
PITQ4 6:44868Touchdown38–36
BALQ4 3:2937Punt38–36
PITQ4 2:25955Field goal38–39
BALQ4 0:4246End of half38–39

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3526921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins181206.71
Javorius Allen6254.22
Danny Woodhead273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace35720
Chris Moore33481
Alex Collins22460
Javorius Allen22320
Danny Woodhead45290
Jeremy Maclin311270
Michael Campanaro1380
Patrick Ricard1161
Nick Boyle1110
Benjamin Watson0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger44/6650620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell13483.72
James Conner263.00
Ben Roethlisberger155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown11182130
Jesse James1012970
Le'Veon Bell910771
Vance McDonald46520
Martavis Bryant610330
Eli Rogers35330
Xavier Grimble0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.04