2017 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

30·10

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

42

Model margin

+0.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.106
  • 43.8%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.099
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.119
  • 7.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -0.45CPOE-3.91
  • 43.3%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.19
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:001658Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 7:141866Field goal3–3
DALQ2 12:50735Missed field goal3–3
NYGQ2 9:41520Punt3–3
DALQ2 7:5236Punt3–3
NYGQ2 6:24963Touchdown3–10
DALQ2 2:07475Touchdown10–10
NYGQ2 1:38616Punt10–10
DALQ2 0:1500End of half10–10
NYGQ3 15:00837Punt10–10
DALQ3 11:0235Punt10–10
NYGQ3 9:25627Punt10–10
DALQ3 7:271058Missed field goal10–10
NYGQ3 2:1238Punt10–10
DALQ3 0:5439Punt10–10
NYGQ4 14:0338Punt10–10
DALQ4 12:33420Punt10–10
NYGQ4 11:0537Punt10–10
DALQ4 9:29482Touchdown17–10
NYGQ4 7:38824Punt17–10
DALQ4 4:33388Touchdown23–10
NYGQ4 4:08315Turnover23–10
DALQ4 3:16321Touchdown30–10
NYGQ4 2:57839Turnover30–10
DALQ4 1:1400End of half30–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3033230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris19623.30
Rod Smith6477.81
Dak Prescott6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith551131
Dez Bryant35731
Cole Beasley35590
Terrance Williams36250
Alfred Morris33230
Jason Witten12201
James Hanna11160
Noah Brown0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning31/4622812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman12594.90
Orleans Darkwa10292.90
Shane Vereen6233.80
Sterling Shepard1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram47540
Roger Lewis711460
Wayne Gallman79400
Shane Vereen34240
Rhett Ellison45201
Sterling Shepard23160
Orleans Darkwa23150
Darius Powe24130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.30