Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
42
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.106
- 43.8%Success rate41.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.099
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.119
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- -0.45CPOE-3.91
- 43.3%Third-down rate32.5%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.19
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/30 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 5 | 113 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 5 | 73 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 31/46 | 228 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 7 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 7 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Darius Powe | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.30