Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJon FelicianoGConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulCory JamesLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulJihad WardDEFoot· DNP
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableCordarrelle PattersonWRHip· Limited
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableDenico AutryDEHand· Limited
- QuestionableJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· Limited
- DNPBruce IrvinLBNot Injury Related
- DNPKhalil MackDENot Injury Related
- DNPMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related
- DNPNavorro BowmanLBNot Injury Related
- DNPReggie NelsonSNot Injury Related
Chiefs
- OutEric MurraySAnkle· DNP
- OutMitch MorseCFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTamba HaliLBKnee· DNP
- DNPDee FordLBBack
- LimitedAllen BaileyDEKnee
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:29 | 7 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:22 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 7:00 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 14:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 13:19 | 6 | 52 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 10:48 | 9 | 33 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| KC | Q2 6:32 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| LV | Q2 1:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–16 |
| KC | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 13 | End of half | 0–16 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 0–19 |
| LV | Q3 11:01 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–19 |
| KC | Q3 8:47 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–19 |
| LV | Q3 6:33 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| KC | Q3 6:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–19 |
| LV | Q3 6:11 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–19 |
| KC | Q3 5:13 | 4 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–26 |
| LV | Q3 3:22 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 0–26 |
| KC | Q4 14:51 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–26 |
| LV | Q4 11:19 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–26 |
| KC | Q4 8:51 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–26 |
| LV | Q4 8:46 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 15–26 |
| KC | Q4 7:09 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 15–26 |
| LV | Q4 2:39 | 9 | 55 | Turnover | 15–26 |
| KC | Q4 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 15–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/34 | 268 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.