Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/34 | 268 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 25 | 116 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.