Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.146
- 42.5%Success rate38.4%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.096
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.33CPOE-5.42
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.6%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 1.79Points / drive1.07
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/42 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javorius Allen | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 12 | 19 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 20/37 | 146 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 5 | 72 | 14.4 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 5 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.02