2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

27·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

42

Model margin

-2.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.146
  • 42.5%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.096
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.33CPOE-5.42
  • 35.3%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.07
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:001262Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 8:4638Punt3–0
BALQ1 7:0230Punt3–0
CLEQ1 6:063-11Punt3–0
BALQ1 4:4036Punt3–0
CLEQ1 3:2263Turnover3–0
BALQ1 1:041131Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ2 11:11691Touchdown3–7
BALQ2 8:121175Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 3:01626Turnover10–7
BALQ2 1:36345Touchdown17–7
CLEQ2 0:59752Field goal17–10
CLEQ3 15:0034Punt17–10
BALQ3 13:08423Punt17–10
CLEQ3 11:0131Punt17–10
BALQ3 9:56515Punt23–10
CLEQ3 7:131-3Opp touchdown24–10
CLEQ3 7:06936Turnover on downs24–10
BALQ3 3:17736Field goal27–10
CLEQ3 0:041353Turnover27–10
BALQ4 11:07943Punt27–10
CLEQ4 6:4136Punt27–10
BALQ4 5:10642End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/4228810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javorius Allen13705.40
Alex Collins12191.60
Maxx Williams144.00
Joe Flacco430.81
Danny Woodhead111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace610890
Benjamin Watson44741
Alex Collins58330
Danny Woodhead67310
Jeremy Maclin11220
Michael Campanaro11170
Nick Boyle1290
Breshad Perriman1290
Javorius Allen1340
Maxx Williams0100
Chris Moore0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer20/3714602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell57214.40
DeShone Kizer7355.00
Duke Johnson7233.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon510470
Duke Johnson57400
Seth DeValve24320
Corey Coleman14160
Rashard Higgins22100
Sammie Coates1180
Ricardo Louis0100
David Njoku0300
Isaiah Crowell45-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.02