Closing spread
DET -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.046
- 38.5%Success rate40.8%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.278
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.10CPOE+0.41
- 34.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.22Points / drive1.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 31/46 | 314 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 7 | 13 | 81 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Daniel Brown | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/33 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tion Green | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18