2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

10·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.046
  • 38.5%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.278
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.10CPOE+0.41
  • 34.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00732Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 11:58415Punt0–3
DETQ1 9:45522Punt0–3
CHIQ1 7:2233Punt0–3
DETQ1 5:231144Field goal0–6
CHIQ2 14:56515Punt0–6
DETQ2 11:541297Touchdown0–13
CHIQ2 6:101053Punt0–13
DETQ2 0:57530Turnover0–13
CHIQ2 0:1214Field goal3–13
DETQ2 0:0200End of half3–13
CHIQ3 15:0022Turnover3–13
DETQ3 14:10941Touchdown3–20
CHIQ3 9:48725Punt3–20
DETQ3 6:1134Punt3–20
CHIQ3 3:521059Turnover3–20
DETQ4 13:31721Punt3–20
CHIQ4 9:2317104Touchdown10–20
DETQ4 2:3233Punt10–20
CHIQ4 2:071069Turnover10–20
DETQ4 0:2800End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky31/4631413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard10373.70
Mitchell Trubisky231.50
Tarik Cohen210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright713810
Josh Bellamy57700
Markus Wheaton24420
Benny Cunningham45331
Daniel Brown34320
Jordan Howard44260
Tarik Cohen46160
Dion Sims1190
Dontrelle Inman1250

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3323720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick8496.10
Tion Green10353.50
Ameer Abdullah188.00
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones35850
Golden Tate35330
Eric Ebron57331
Kenny Golladay45290
T.J. Jones33261
Ameer Abdullah34130
Theo Riddick33120
Jamal Agnew1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.18