Closing spread
KC -1
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.082
- 44.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.191EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.86CPOE+4.58
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.87Points / drive2.21
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 20/36 | 227 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 78 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/30 | 231 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 24 | 155 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 88 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 9 | 51 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.33