2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

13·30

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.082
  • 44.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.191EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.86CPOE+4.58
  • 40.7%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.21
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
LACQ1 15:00716Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:3537Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:5835Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:551592Field goal0–3
LACQ2 15:001041Punt0–3
KCQ2 8:20475Touchdown0–10
LACQ2 6:301167Touchdown6–10
KCQ2 2:00948Missed field goal6–10
LACQ2 0:07213End of half6–10
KCQ3 15:00420Punt6–10
LACQ3 12:47688Touchdown13–10
KCQ3 9:201264Touchdown13–17
LACQ3 2:0720Turnover13–17
KCQ3 1:4035Field goal13–20
LACQ3 0:28315Turnover13–20
KCQ4 14:27523Field goal13–23
LACQ4 10:59633Turnover13–23
KCQ4 8:23859Touchdown13–30
LACQ4 3:57913Turnover13–30
KCQ4 1:5334Punt13–30
LACQ4 1:19516End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers20/3622713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon19784.11
Austin Ekeler2136.50
Travis Benjamin177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Melvin Gordon68910
Keenan Allen58540
Tyrell Williams37310
Hunter Henry33280
Antonio Gates13101
Travis Benjamin1470
Austin Ekeler1160
Branden Oliver0100
Mike Williams0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith23/3023120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt241556.51
Alex Smith3134.30
Charcandrick West561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill56881
Kareem Hunt79511
Travis Kelce67460
Orson Charles11180
Albert Wilson12150
Demetrius Harris1270
De'Anthony Thomas2260
Charcandrick West0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.33