Closing spread
LA -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.023
- 43.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.131EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.192
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.32CPOE+4.52
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.27Points / drive1.68
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/21 | 120 | 2 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 21 | 152 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Malcolm Brown | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/30 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44