Closing spread
LA -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulBrandon AllenQBBack· DNP
- DNPJohn SullivanCIllness
Seahawks
- OutKam ChancellorSNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulK.J. WrightLBConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulNazair JonesDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBobby WagnerLBHamstring· DNP
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.023
- 43.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.131EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.192
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.32CPOE+4.52
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.27Points / drive1.68
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:36 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:06 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:00 | 6 | 37 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:21 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 12–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:00 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:57 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:22 | 10 | 56 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q2 11:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LA | Q2 10:15 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:13 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| LA | Q2 7:27 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 27–0 |
| SEA | Q2 3:26 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 27–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:19 | 3 | 47 | Touchdown | 34–0 |
| SEA | Q2 0:28 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 34–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 34–0 |
| SEA | Q3 13:18 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 34–0 |
| LA | Q3 10:56 | 7 | 46 | Touchdown | 40–0 |
| SEA | Q3 7:04 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 40–0 |
| LA | Q3 5:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 40–0 |
| SEA | Q3 3:11 | 7 | 62 | Touchdown | 40–7 |
| LA | Q3 1:23 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 40–7 |
| SEA | Q4 13:25 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 40–7 |
| LA | Q4 12:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 42–7 |
| SEA | Q4 10:19 | 1 | 0 | Safety | 42–7 |
| LA | Q4 10:14 | 8 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 42–7 |
| SEA | Q4 5:42 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 42–7 |
| LA | Q4 4:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 42–7 |
| SEA | Q4 1:50 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 42–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/21 | 120 | 2 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 21 | 152 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Malcolm Brown | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/30 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44