2017 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

34·29

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -7.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.106
  • 43.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +0.38CPOE-3.91
  • 42.0%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.19
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001676Touchdown0–6
PHIQ1 9:04838Touchdown7–6
NYGQ1 5:281075Touchdown7–13
PHIQ1 1:26526Punt7–13
NYGQ2 14:47475Touchdown7–20
PHIQ2 13:4434Punt7–20
NYGQ2 12:04417Punt7–20
PHIQ2 10:39836Turnover on downs7–20
NYGQ2 7:0430Turnover7–20
PHIQ2 6:13520Touchdown14–20
NYGQ2 4:4936Punt14–20
PHIQ2 3:16318Touchdown21–20
NYGQ2 2:201050Field goal21–23
PHIQ2 0:2700End of half21–23
PHIQ3 15:001064Field goal24–23
NYGQ3 9:1832Punt24–23
PHIQ3 8:38564Touchdown31–23
NYGQ3 5:47875Touchdown31–29
PHIQ3 1:5733Punt31–29
NYGQ3 0:54952Missed field goal31–29
PHIQ4 11:261360Field goal34–29
NYGQ4 3:561469Turnover on downs34–29
PHIQ4 0:4339Punt34–29
NYGQ4 0:1327End of half34–29

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles24/3823740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi12494.10
LeGarrette Blount7213.00
Kenjon Barner22110.50
Corey Clement4174.30
Nick Foles200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor79591
Zach Ertz69561
Alshon Jeffery410491
Jay Ajayi22400
Torrey Smith23170
Trey Burton22151
Corey Clement1110
Mack Hollins0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning37/5743431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman8394.90
Shane Vereen5153.00
Evan Engram11414.00
Orleans Darkwa970.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard11161391
Evan Engram813870
Roger Lewis410740
Tavarres King23702
Wayne Gallman67400
Shane Vereen55150
Orleans Darkwa1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15