Closing spread
PHI -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.106
- 43.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.2%
- +0.38CPOE-3.91
- 42.0%Third-down rate32.5%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 2.12Points / drive1.19
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 24/38 | 237 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 7 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| Jay Ajayi | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 37/57 | 434 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 11 | 16 | 139 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 8 | 13 | 87 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 4 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 2 | 3 | 70 | 2 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15