2017 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

16·0

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 10°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIN -8.5

Total

41

Model margin

-2.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.5%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.032
  • 8.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +3.66CPOE-1.27
  • 44.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.77
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:18839Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:2834Punt3–0
MINQ1 6:203-1Punt3–0
GBQ1 4:4137Punt3–0
MINQ1 3:05629Touchdown10–0
GBQ1 0:56617Punt10–0
MINQ2 12:3036Punt10–0
GBQ2 11:0038Punt10–0
MINQ2 9:39732Punt10–0
GBQ2 4:51957Turnover10–0
MINQ2 1:0139Punt10–0
GBQ2 0:1620End of half10–0
MINQ3 15:00625Punt10–0
GBQ3 11:581149Turnover on downs10–0
MINQ3 7:321262Field goal13–0
GBQ3 1:203-3Punt13–0
MINQ4 14:5330Punt13–0
GBQ4 13:32740Turnover on downs13–0
MINQ4 10:04734Punt13–0
GBQ4 6:401024Turnover on downs13–0
MINQ4 3:5635Field goal16–0
GBQ4 2:56519Turnover16–0
MINQ4 1:5700End of half16–0

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum14/2513910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray21693.30
Jerick McKinnon7426.00
Stefon Diggs133.00
Case Keenum4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs58601
David Morgan22260
Adam Thielen26240
Jerick McKinnon1290
Jarius Wright1280
Kyle Rudolph1160
Latavius Murray1160
Michael Floyd1100
Laquon Treadwell0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley17/4013002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams15583.90
Brett Hundley5489.60
Aaron Jones3134.30
Randall Cobb1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Kendricks49360
Michael Clark39360
Randall Cobb47220
Jeff Janis12120
Jordy Nelson35110
Geronimo Allison1390
Trevor Davis0100
Jamaal Williams0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.83