Closing spread
MIN -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.023
- 42.5%Success rate45.2%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- +3.66CPOE-1.27
- 44.3%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 2.02Points / drive1.77
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 14/25 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| David Morgan | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 17/40 | 130 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Clark | 3 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Trevor Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.83