Closing spread
SEA -8
Total
38
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.023
- 38.8%Success rate41.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.192
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- -4.25CPOE+4.52
- 35.7%Third-down rate37.4%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 15/34 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 23 | 75 | 3.3 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 13 | 55 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| D.J. Foster | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/29 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 5 | 90 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.10