2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

26·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -8

Total

38

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.023
  • 38.8%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.192
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -4.25CPOE+4.52
  • 35.7%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.68
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:001073Touchdown7–6
SEAQ1 8:5500Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 8:43412Field goal10–7
SEAQ1 7:1039Punt10–7
ARIQ1 5:27512Punt10–7
SEAQ1 3:133-9Punt10–7
ARIQ1 1:08743Touchdown17–7
SEAQ2 12:19526Punt17–7
ARIQ2 10:22620Punt17–7
SEAQ2 7:1936Punt17–7
ARIQ2 5:5436Punt17–7
SEAQ2 4:1339Punt17–7
ARIQ2 2:23824Field goal20–7
SEAQ2 0:583-17End of half20–7
SEAQ3 15:001180Touchdown20–14
ARIQ3 8:5910Turnover20–14
SEAQ3 8:4547Punt20–14
ARIQ3 7:16524Field goal23–14
SEAQ3 4:22646Punt23–14
ARIQ3 1:4734Punt23–14
SEAQ3 0:45629Field goal23–17
ARIQ4 13:045-1Punt23–17
SEAQ4 11:11260Touchdown23–24
ARIQ4 10:2431Punt23–24
SEAQ4 9:2335Punt23–24
ARIQ4 7:111042Field goal26–24
SEAQ4 2:21645Missed field goal26–24
ARIQ4 0:3200End of half26–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton15/3414511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams23753.30
D.J. Foster133.00
Drew Stanton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald813550
Jaron Brown15251
Jermaine Gresham33240
J.J. Nelson11180
D.J. Foster13170
Kerwynn Williams1160
Troy Niklas0100
John Brown0400
Ricky Seals-Jones0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2922120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis10484.80
Russell Wilson5367.20
J.D. McKissic492.30
Thomas Rawls382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin45902
Jimmy Graham36450
Tyler Lockett34250
Thomas Rawls23200
J.D. McKissic33200
Mike Davis23160
Amara Darboh1150
Luke Willson0100
Paul Richardson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.10