Closing spread
MIN -13.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.026
- 38.5%Success rate42.5%
- -0.099EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.10CPOE+3.66
- 34.8%Third-down rate44.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.22Points / drive2.02
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 20/36 | 178 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 9 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrelle Inman | 5 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/29 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 20 | 111 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.73