2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

10·23

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -13.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.026
  • 38.5%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.10CPOE+3.66
  • 34.8%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.02
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:52855Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:0732Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:16718Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:43428Punt0–7
MINQ1 0:381343Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 9:30411Punt0–14
MINQ2 8:1231Opp touchdown7–14
MINQ2 5:50417Punt7–14
CHIQ2 3:162-3Safety7–16
MINQ2 2:2535Punt7–16
CHIQ2 0:5837Punt7–16
MINQ2 0:29417Missed field goal7–16
MINQ3 15:00845Punt7–16
CHIQ3 11:2753Punt7–16
MINQ3 8:43418Punt7–16
CHIQ3 6:52510Punt7–16
MINQ3 3:50763Touchdown7–23
CHIQ3 0:141269Turnover on downs7–23
MINQ4 11:2444Punt7–23
CHIQ4 9:53426Field goal10–23
MINQ4 8:2240Punt10–23
CHIQ4 5:341140Turnover on downs10–23
MINQ4 2:18443End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky20/3617800
Tarik Cohen0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen3134.30
Jordan Howard991.00
Josh Bellamy166.00
Mitchell Trubisky122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontrelle Inman510940
Josh Bellamy15300
Kendall Wright58290
Tarik Cohen68140
Benny Cunningham1160
Jordan Howard1150
Dion Sims0100
Markus Wheaton0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum21/2918910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray201115.52
Jerick McKinnon12443.70
Case Keenum300.00
Stefon Diggs1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs66651
Adam Thielen67610
David Morgan33350
Laquon Treadwell33160
Kyle Rudolph1330
Latavius Murray1130
Michael Floyd0300
Jerick McKinnon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.73