2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

31·27

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -8

Total

40

Model margin

+3.8est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.052
  • 39.2%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -1.89CPOE-1.33
  • 34.7%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.79
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:00961Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 10:55527Punt7–0
CINQ1 9:00417Punt7–0
BALQ1 7:3832Punt7–0
CINQ1 6:11615Punt7–0
BALQ1 3:1637Punt7–0
CINQ1 2:35613Punt7–0
BALQ1 0:1235Punt7–0
CINQ2 14:1235Punt7–0
BALQ2 13:0831Punt7–0
CINQ2 12:1618Turnover7–0
BALQ2 12:1036Field goal7–3
CINQ2 11:1335Punt7–3
BALQ2 9:1432Punt7–3
CINQ2 8:12972Touchdown14–3
BALQ2 4:1435Punt14–3
CINQ2 3:221073Field goal17–3
BALQ2 0:2316Touchdown17–10
CINQ2 0:0400End of half17–10
BALQ3 15:00955Opp touchdown24–10
BALQ3 10:17861Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 6:16515Punt24–17
BALQ3 4:031452Field goal24–20
CINQ4 13:0832Punt24–20
BALQ4 12:05840Touchdown24–27
CINQ4 8:483-5Punt24–27
BALQ4 6:33634Punt24–27
CINQ4 2:431480Touchdown31–27
BALQ4 0:4449Turnover on downs31–27
CINQ4 0:1400End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton23/4422230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon18965.30
Giovani Bernard10525.20
Andy Dalton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd57911
Tyler Kroft68532
Brandon LaFell24350
Giovani Bernard69180
A.J. Green210170
C.J. Uzomah1270
Joe Mixon1110

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/4720321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins20783.91
Javorius Allen5377.40
Danny Woodhead133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson710610
Mike Wallace513401
Michael Campanaro34360
Nick Boyle23240
Alex Collins26180
Danny Woodhead46160
Chris Moore1361
Patrick Ricard1120
Javorius Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.78