Closing spread
BAL -8
Total
40
Model margin
+3.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.052
- 39.2%Success rate42.5%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- -1.89CPOE-1.33
- 34.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate63.2%
- 1.49Points / drive1.79
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 23/44 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 18 | 96 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 91 | 1 |
| Tyler Kroft | 6 | 8 | 53 | 2 |
| Brandon LaFell | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 9 | 18 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 2 | 10 | 17 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/47 | 203 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 13 | 40 | 1 |
| Michael Campanaro | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.78