Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.146EPA / play+0.076
- 38.4%Success rate46.0%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.085
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.42CPOE+3.69
- 33.6%Third-down rate43.8%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.07Points / drive2.22
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 16/30 | 314 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 6 | 61 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 21 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 7 | 115 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 4 | 68 | 2 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landry Jones | 23/27 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 9 | 10 | 143 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.09
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.70