2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

24·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Landry Jones

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 11°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PIT -5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.146EPA / play+0.076
  • 38.4%Success rate46.0%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.085
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -5.42CPOE+3.69
  • 33.6%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
  • 1.07Points / drive2.22
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
PITQ1 15:00872Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 10:433-18Punt0–7
PITQ1 8:1421Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 7:2533Punt0–7
PITQ1 5:531068Turnover on downs0–7
CLEQ1 0:453-1Punt0–7
PITQ2 14:47328Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 13:26574Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 11:46955Touchdown7–21
CLEQ2 7:59260Touchdown14–21
PITQ2 7:1335Punt14–21
CLEQ2 5:25620Punt14–21
PITQ2 1:57356Turnover14–21
CLEQ2 0:463-1Punt14–21
PITQ2 0:1812End of half14–21
CLEQ3 15:00768Touchdown21–27
PITQ3 10:5400Touchdown21–28
CLEQ3 10:421675Field goal24–28
PITQ3 2:04625Punt24–28
CLEQ4 14:14325Turnover24–28
PITQ4 12:35525Punt24–28
CLEQ4 9:14611Turnover24–28
PITQ4 6:4734Punt24–28
CLEQ4 4:30858Turnover on downs24–28
PITQ4 1:46513Turnover on downs24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer16/3031421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShone Kizer66110.20
Isaiah Crowell15211.40
Duke Johnson6203.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon471150
Duke Johnson66750
Rashard Higgins34682
David Njoku23380
Corey Coleman16180
Ricardo Louis0200
Seth DeValve0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Landry Jones23/2723911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley17804.71
Darrius Heyward-Bey12929.01
Fitzgerald Toussaint5224.40
Landry Jones3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster9101431
Martavis Bryant67650
Fitzgerald Toussaint2390
Jesse James2290
Vance McDonald1250
Xavier Grimble1120
Eli Rogers1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.09
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.70