2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

6·0

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-1.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.051
  • 43.8%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.144
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.093
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -0.45CPOE+0.38
  • 43.3%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.12
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00838Turnover on downs0–0
DALQ1 11:43619Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 9:013-2Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:4232Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:39411Turnover0–0
DALQ1 4:3537Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:26410Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:0239Punt0–0
PHIQ2 14:00836Punt0–0
DALQ2 9:1234Punt0–0
PHIQ2 7:083-4Punt0–0
DALQ2 5:281566Punt0–0
PHIQ2 0:31320End of half0–0
DALQ3 15:00428Punt0–0
PHIQ3 13:163-8Punt0–0
DALQ3 11:0233Punt0–0
PHIQ3 9:311037Punt0–0
DALQ3 3:0714103Touchdown6–0
PHIQ4 12:1939Punt6–0
DALQ4 10:3439Punt6–0
PHIQ4 8:52746Turnover on downs6–0
DALQ4 5:361151Missed field goal6–0
PHIQ4 0:13326Turnover6–0

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/3017910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott271033.80
Dak Prescott2168.00
Terrance Williams199.00
Alfred Morris210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brice Butler22501
Ezekiel Elliott35380
Ryan Switzer45320
Dez Bryant38240
Jason Witten23170
James Hanna12130
Terrance Williams2450
Noah Brown0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nate Sudfeld19/2313400
Nick Foles4/113901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount9374.10
Nate Sudfeld12222.00
Nelson Agholor177.00
Wendell Smallwood461.50
Nick Foles100.00
Corey Clement100.00
Kenjon Barner1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins35250
Zach Ertz22240
Wendell Smallwood33240
Marcus Johnson33230
Kenjon Barner11140
Brent Celek34130
LeGarrette Blount11110
Nelson Agholor33110
Shelton Gibson23110
Trey Burton1290
Alshon Jeffery1280
Torrey Smith0300
Corey Clement0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.36
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.88