Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.051
- 43.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.144
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- -0.45CPOE+0.38
- 43.3%Third-down rate42.0%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.85Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/30 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 27 | 103 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Sudfeld | 19/23 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 4/11 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Shelton Gibson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-5.36
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.88