Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.046
- 45.2%Success rate40.8%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.278
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.27CPOE+0.41
- 39.5%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.77Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 14/24 | 172 | 1 | 2 |
| Joe Callahan | 5/7 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devante Mays | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Davis | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Emanuel Byrd | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Clark | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Devante Mays | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/29 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tion Green | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 104 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Tion Green | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.77