Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
+3.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Packers
- OutAaron JonesRBKnee· DNP
- OutDavante AdamsWRConcussion· DNP
- OutJahri EvansGKnee· DNP
- OutJordy NelsonWRShoulder· DNP
- OutNick PerryLBAnkle· DNP
- OutRichard RodgersTEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableClay MatthewsLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableDamarious RandallCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGeronimo AllisonWRIllness· Limited
- QuestionableUlrick JohnTBack· DNP
- LimitedAhmad BrooksLBBack
- LimitedDavon HouseCBShoulder
- LimitedMike DanielsDTShoulder
- LimitedQuinton DialDTKnee
Lions
- OutNevin LawsonCBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony ZettelDEGroin· Limited
- DNPTravis SwansonCConcussion
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.046
- 45.2%Success rate40.8%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.278
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.27CPOE+0.41
- 39.5%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.77Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 14:59 | 9 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:57 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 4:59 | 5 | 59 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| GB | Q1 3:02 | 6 | 44 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| DET | Q1 0:43 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| GB | Q2 13:21 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 11:21 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 7:27 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 5:04 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 3:02 | 2 | 14 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| GB | Q2 2:20 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 1:41 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| GB | Q2 0:31 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 3–20 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 3–20 |
| DET | Q3 12:32 | 9 | 36 | Punt | 3–20 |
| GB | Q3 7:06 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–20 |
| DET | Q3 5:35 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–20 |
| GB | Q3 3:56 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–26 |
| DET | Q3 1:50 | 1 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| GB | Q3 1:38 | 10 | 58 | Touchdown | 11–27 |
| DET | Q4 11:27 | 8 | 54 | Touchdown | 11–35 |
| GB | Q4 7:16 | 5 | 42 | Turnover | 11–35 |
| DET | Q4 5:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 11–35 |
| GB | Q4 2:10 | 7 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 11–35 |
| DET | Q4 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 11–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 14/24 | 172 | 1 | 2 |
| Joe Callahan | 5/7 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devante Mays | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Davis | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Emanuel Byrd | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Clark | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Devante Mays | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/29 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tion Green | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 104 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Tion Green | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.77