Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/37 | 387 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 12 | 133 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.