Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutTreyvon HesterDTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulVadal AlexanderTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDavid AmersonCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableDavid SharpeTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableDexter McDonaldCBKnee· Limited
Chargers
- OutAdrian PhillipsSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMelvin GordonRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRussell OkungTGroin· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–LAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:34 | 8 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:19 | 10 | 58 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:36 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:09 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:38 | 7 | 48 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:33 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:27 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:12 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 1:48 | 8 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LV | Q2 0:24 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 78 | Field goal | 10–23 |
| LV | Q3 10:39 | 9 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 10–23 |
| LAC | Q3 5:43 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| LV | Q3 0:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q4 14:14 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 10–30 |
| LV | Q4 10:16 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q4 9:00 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| LV | Q4 7:03 | 10 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q4 2:48 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 28/37 | 387 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 12 | 133 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 96 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Branden Oliver | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.29
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.