2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

34·13

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Sean Mannion

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-10.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • -0.041EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.2%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.050
  • 9.2%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -3.27CPOE-1.32
  • 39.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.27
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:00760Field goal3–0
LAQ1 12:0839Punt3–0
SFQ1 9:41882Touchdown10–0
LAQ1 5:1432Punt10–0
SFQ1 4:14214Turnover10–0
LAQ1 3:2469Field goal10–3
SFQ1 1:1135Punt10–3
LAQ2 14:43918Punt10–3
SFQ2 9:521067Field goal13–3
LAQ2 5:005-1Punt13–3
SFQ2 2:13449Touchdown20–3
LAQ2 1:13744Turnover20–3
SFQ2 0:1610Turnover20–3
LAQ2 0:09150Field goal20–6
LAQ3 15:0034Punt20–6
SFQ3 13:31515Punt20–6
LAQ3 10:5337Punt20–6
SFQ3 8:45760Touchdown27–6
LAQ3 6:12741Turnover27–6
SFQ3 3:33753Touchdown34–6
LAQ4 14:541567Touchdown34–13
SFQ4 6:40751Turnover34–13
LAQ4 3:4831Punt34–13
SFQ4 1:5116End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/3329222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde15885.92
Matt Breida12726.00
Marquise Goodwin11010.00
Jimmy Garoppolo2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle461000
Matt Breida12320
Trent Taylor22290
Garrett Celek11280
Marquise Goodwin24281
Kendrick Bourne25280
Aldrick Robinson13121
Carlos Hyde24100
Louis Murphy1260

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sean Mannion20/3416900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown14543.90
Tavon Austin4246.00
Lance Dunbar6203.31
Sean Mannion242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas34750
Pharoh Cooper24300
Gerald Everett36160
Josh Reynolds26160
Tavon Austin35140
Derek Carrier22100
Malcolm Brown4570
Lance Dunbar1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.7%3.0%3.6%3.5%4.8%3.0%2.3%6.5%4.7%2.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

22.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-12.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-10.77