Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-10.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play+0.054
- 41.2%Success rate43.3%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.2%Explosive rate11.4%
- -3.27CPOE-1.32
- 39.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.75Points / drive2.27
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/33 | 292 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 88 | 5.9 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Mannion | 20/34 | 169 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Sean Mannion | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 4 | 75 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
22.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-12.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-10.77