2017 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

10·18

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 16°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

WAS -5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.106
  • 40.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.1%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +1.00CPOE-3.91
  • 32.5%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.19
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00275Touchdown0–6
WASQ1 14:4333Turnover0–6
NYGQ1 13:23219Touchdown0–12
WASQ1 12:4239Punt0–12
NYGQ1 11:07625Turnover0–12
WASQ1 8:40220Touchdown7–12
NYGQ1 7:55865Field goal7–15
WASQ1 4:49948Punt7–15
NYGQ2 14:1839Punt7–15
WASQ2 12:55723Punt7–15
NYGQ2 8:46925Punt7–15
WASQ2 5:333-3Punt7–15
NYGQ2 4:04612Punt7–15
WASQ2 1:4632Punt7–15
NYGQ2 1:0134Punt10–15
WASQ2 0:0400Field goal10–15
WASQ3 15:00311Turnover10–15
NYGQ3 14:0236Punt10–15
WASQ3 12:48519Punt10–15
NYGQ3 10:3931Punt10–15
WASQ3 9:48632Missed field goal10–15
NYGQ3 6:51621Punt10–15
WASQ3 3:5834Punt10–15
NYGQ3 2:41952Field goal10–18
WASQ4 14:0939Punt10–18
NYGQ4 12:3838Punt10–18
WASQ4 11:15516Punt10–18
NYGQ4 8:09835Punt10–18
WASQ4 3:1124Turnover10–18
NYGQ4 2:40328End of half10–18

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3715803

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kapri Bibbs12473.90
Kirk Cousins11212.01
Samaje Perine231.50
Jamison Crowder1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kapri Bibbs89530
Josh Doctson410370
Jamison Crowder37250
Ryan Grant25230
Vernon Davis23200
Niles Paul1200
Brian Quick0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning10/2813211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa201547.71
Wayne Gallman15895.90
Shane Vereen3144.70
Paul Perkins372.30
Eli Manning3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rhett Ellison56630
Hunter Sharp36291
Travis Rudolph14290
Paul Perkins11110
Shane Vereen0200
Orleans Darkwa0100
Jerell Adams0300
Marquis Bundy0300
Wayne Gallman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81