2017 · Week 17 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 16°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
WAS -5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.106
- 40.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.1%Explosive rate6.2%
- +1.00CPOE-3.91
- 32.5%Third-down rate32.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.61Points / drive1.19
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/37 | 158 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapri Bibbs | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapri Bibbs | 8 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 10/28 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 20 | 154 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 15 | 89 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Ellison | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Hunter Sharp | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Travis Rudolph | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquis Bundy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81