Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.009
- 47.5%Success rate42.8%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.091
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.39CPOE-0.95
- 43.9%Third-down rate35.9%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. CLE are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/41 | 335 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 31 | 135 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 16 | 93 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 15/40 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 22 | 62 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 15 | 106 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38