2018 · Week 1 · Division

Final / OT

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

21·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tyrod Taylor

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-2.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.009
  • 47.5%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.091
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.39CPOE-0.95
  • 43.9%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.75
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. CLE are 26-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CLE
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:29626Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:08523Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:394-4Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:24427Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 5:22621Punt0–0
PITQ1 1:551184Touchdown7–0
CLEQ2 11:16838Punt7–0
PITQ2 7:3010Turnover7–0
CLEQ2 7:19731Punt7–0
PITQ2 2:33754Turnover7–0
CLEQ2 0:422-14End of half7–0
CLEQ3 15:001066Touchdown7–7
PITQ3 10:05594Touchdown14–7
CLEQ3 8:2456Punt14–7
PITQ3 6:08239Touchdown21–7
CLEQ3 5:23642Punt21–7
PITQ3 3:271252Punt21–7
CLEQ4 12:114-1Punt21–7
PITQ4 10:5045Punt21–7
CLEQ4 8:42824Turnover on downs21–7
PITQ4 7:441-1Turnover21–13
CLEQ4 7:3611Touchdown21–14
PITQ4 7:3229Turnover21–14
CLEQ4 6:413-2Punt21–14
PITQ4 5:14614Punt21–14
CLEQ4 2:10255Touchdown21–21
PITQ4 1:5831Punt21–21
CLEQ4 1:29523Turnover21–21
PITQ4 0:1600End of half21–21
CLEOT39Punt21–21
PITOT621Punt21–21
CLEOT37Punt21–21
PITOT731Missed field goal21–21
CLEOT30Punt21–21
PITOT312Turnover21–21
CLEOT1-1Missed field goal21–21
PITOT10End of half21–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/4133513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner311354.42
Ben Roethlisberger3165.30
Ryan Switzer188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster581190
Antonio Brown916931
Jesse James35600
James Conner56570
Justin Hunter1560
Ryan Switzer0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor15/4019711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor8779.61
Carlos Hyde22622.81
Nick Chubb3217.00
Duke Johnson5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry7151060
Rashard Higgins13380
Josh Gordon13171
David Njoku37130
Darren Fells11120
Duke Johnson1680
Carlos Hyde1230
Antonio Callaway0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.7%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.38