2018 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 82°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

43

Model margin

-1.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.013
  • 45.8%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.074
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -3.77CPOE-3.54
  • 45.4%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.95
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:243-1Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:2410Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:1355Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 10:35526Punt0–7
CINQ1 8:10580Touchdown0–14
BALQ1 6:2631Punt0–14
CINQ1 3:551367Touchdown0–21
BALQ2 13:021168Touchdown7–21
CINQ2 8:201478Touchdown7–28
BALQ2 2:58837Turnover on downs7–28
CINQ2 1:2230Punt7–28
BALQ2 1:02851Touchdown14–28
CINQ2 0:0800End of half14–28
CINQ3 15:00516Punt14–28
BALQ3 13:36428Field goal17–28
CINQ3 12:30516Punt17–28
BALQ3 9:10636Turnover on downs17–28
CINQ3 6:35520Punt17–28
BALQ3 4:37638Turnover17–28
CINQ3 2:00525Punt17–28
BALQ4 14:501292Touchdown23–28
CINQ4 9:351060Field goal23–31
BALQ4 2:5930Turnover23–31
CINQ4 2:4237Field goal23–34
BALQ4 2:251248End of half23–34

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco32/5537622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins9353.90
Joe Flacco382.70
Javorius Allen681.31
Maxx Williams177.00
Lamar Jackson263.00
Chris Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown410921
Michael Crabtree510560
Alex Collins34550
Willie Snead58540
Javorius Allen57360
Maxx Williams33310
Nick Boyle24260
Mark Andrews34171
Chris Moore2390

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton24/4226540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon21844.00
Giovani Bernard6274.50
John Ross1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd69911
A.J. Green59693
C.J. Uzomah34450
Tyler Eifert24230
Giovani Bernard47150
Tyler Kroft22110
John Ross1480
Joe Mixon1130
Josh Malone0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.5%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.96