Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
43
Model margin
-1.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.013
- 45.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.074
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- -3.77CPOE-3.54
- 45.4%Third-down rate36.9%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.01Points / drive1.95
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 32/55 | 376 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 4 | 10 | 92 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 24/42 | 265 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 9 | 91 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 9 | 69 | 3 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.96