2018 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·12

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 80°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3

Total

43

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.130
  • 40.1%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.128EPA / rush-0.196
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.24CPOE-5.42
  • 30.3%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 65.0%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.47
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
MIAQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:24517Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:093-13Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:46824Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 2:41315Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 1:123-3Punt7–0
MIAQ2 14:1036Punt7–0
NYJQ2 12:46424Punt7–0
MIAQ2 11:01730Punt7–0
NYJQ2 7:19438Turnover7–0
MIAQ2 4:56234Touchdown14–0
NYJQ2 4:103-7Punt14–0
MIAQ2 2:29957Touchdown20–0
NYJQ2 0:42574End of half20–0
NYJQ3 15:00775Touchdown20–6
MIAQ3 11:511-17Turnover20–6
NYJQ3 11:3810Turnover20–6
MIAQ3 11:33625Punt20–6
NYJQ3 8:26530Punt20–6
MIAQ3 5:17739Turnover20–6
NYJQ3 1:201127Field goal20–9
MIAQ4 10:0630Punt20–9
NYJQ4 9:01963Field goal20–12
MIAQ4 5:56961End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/2316820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake11534.81
Ryan Tannehill8445.50
Frank Gore9252.80
Albert Wilson284.00
Jakeem Grant155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Wilson35371
Danny Amendola44320
Jakeem Grant24270
Frank Gore11190
A.J. Derby12191
Kenny Stills23170
Kenyan Drake44170

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold25/4133412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12352.90
Bilal Powell561.20
Sam Darnold210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Enunwa711920
Terrelle Pryor48840
Bilal Powell56741
Chris Herndon24300
Robbie Chosen35270
Eric Tomlinson12240
Isaiah Crowell2340
Jermaine Kearse12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.46