Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.130
- 40.1%Success rate37.1%
- -0.100EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.128EPA / rush-0.196
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.24CPOE-5.42
- 30.3%Third-down rate32.2%
- 65.0%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.45Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/23 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 25/41 | 334 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 7 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.46