Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
42
Model margin
+2.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.009
- 39.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.30CPOE+1.03
- 36.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.89Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 33/44 | 279 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 16 | 80 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 16/25 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 2 | 79 | 1 |
| Deonte Thompson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.91