Closing spread
JAX -10
Total
39
Model margin
+2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.130
- 42.6%Success rate40.4%
- +0.023EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.184
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.50CPOE-4.63
- 40.0%Third-down rate40.5%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.83Points / drive1.26
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 12/18 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1/3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 21/34 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09