2018 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Blaine Gabbert

9·6

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

JAX -10

Total

39

Model margin

+2.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.130
  • 42.6%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.184
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.50CPOE-4.63
  • 40.0%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.26
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:273-5Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:5746Turnover on downs0–0
TENQ1 9:10912Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 4:59619Punt3–0
TENQ1 1:17422Punt3–0
JAXQ2 14:171144Field goal3–3
TENQ2 8:5433Punt3–3
JAXQ2 7:47313Punt3–3
TENQ2 5:3738Punt3–3
JAXQ2 3:3330Punt3–3
TENQ2 2:25520Missed field goal3–3
TENQ3 15:001045Field goal6–3
JAXQ3 10:01621Punt6–3
TENQ3 7:53837Punt6–3
JAXQ3 2:271378Field goal6–6
TENQ4 10:481165Field goal9–6
JAXQ4 4:0637Punt9–6
TENQ4 2:42626Punt9–6
JAXQ4 0:19316Turnover9–6

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota12/1810000
Blaine Gabbert1/3800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry18573.20
Marcus Mariota7517.30
Dion Lewis9262.90
Tajae Sharpe11616.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis24340
Taywan Taylor45300
Dion Lewis33140
Luke Stocker12110
Jonnu Smith1290
Darius Jennings1170
Rishard Matthews1230
Derrick Henry0100
Tajae Sharpe0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles21/3415500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon7446.30
Blake Bortles5275.40
Corey Grant6111.80
Brandon Wilds155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Yeldon67460
Keelan Cole59400
Dede Westbrook34310
Austin Seferian-Jenkins35180
Donte Moncrief23160
James O'Shaughnessy0100
DJ Chark0100
Corey Grant12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.09