Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
51
Model margin
+1.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.102
- 45.8%Success rate47.5%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.194
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.112
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.77CPOE+1.39
- 45.4%Third-down rate43.9%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 2.01Points / drive2.23
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/42 | 363 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 3 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tim White | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/47 | 274 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 7 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.55