2018 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

26·14

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

51

Model margin

+1.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.102
  • 45.8%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.194
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.112
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.77CPOE+1.39
  • 45.4%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.23
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00875Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:4536Turnover7–0
BALQ1 9:59431Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 8:0343Punt14–0
BALQ1 6:0832Punt14–0
PITQ1 4:331264Field goal14–3
BALQ2 14:07477Turnover14–3
PITQ2 12:391389Field goal14–6
BALQ2 6:26415Punt14–6
PITQ2 4:48576Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 2:50622Punt14–14
PITQ2 0:1000End of half14–14
PITQ3 15:0032Punt14–14
BALQ3 12:54638Punt14–14
PITQ3 10:06627Punt14–14
BALQ3 7:241151Field goal17–14
PITQ3 3:583-2Punt17–14
BALQ3 2:571142Field goal20–14
PITQ4 11:42420Punt20–14
BALQ4 10:171387Field goal23–14
PITQ4 3:3730Turnover23–14
BALQ4 3:15414Field goal26–14
PITQ4 1:5640Turnover on downs26–14
BALQ4 1:0300End of half26–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/4236320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins11423.80
Javorius Allen10303.00
Lamar Jackson4174.30
De'Lance Turner144.00
John Brown133.00
Chris Moore133.00
Joe Flacco2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown371161
Willie Snead67560
Maxx Williams55510
Nick Boyle35360
Michael Crabtree38290
Chris Moore11190
Javorius Allen22170
Tim White11140
Mark Andrews22120
De'Lance Turner11100
Alex Collins1131

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/4727411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner9192.10
Ryan Switzer111.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown511621
Vance McDonald55620
JuJu Smith-Schuster411600
Ryan Switzer77320
James Conner37250
Jesse James11230
James Washington24100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.55