Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 21/45 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Little | 6 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Montario Hardesty | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.