2011 · Week 6

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

17·24

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

OAK -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

OAK lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–OAK
CLEQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:311588Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 5:4368Punt0–7
LVQ1 3:09538Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 0:17852Touchdown7–13
LVQ2 12:0700Touchdown7–14
CLEQ2 11:531349Punt7–14
LVQ2 5:46918Punt7–14
CLEQ2 1:4833Punt7–14
LVQ2 1:0444Punt7–14
CLEQ2 0:3315End of half7–14
LVQ3 15:001052Punt7–14
CLEQ3 9:15729Punt7–14
LVQ3 5:57635Field goal7–17
CLEQ3 3:0620Turnover7–17
LVQ3 2:51425Touchdown7–24
CLEQ3 1:23416Punt7–24
LVQ3 0:1430Punt7–24
CLEQ4 14:09613Field goal10–24
CLEQ4 12:2800Field goal10–24
LVQ4 12:2400Turnover on downs10–24
LVQ4 12:181370Turnover on downs10–24
CLEQ4 4:441495Touchdown17–24
LVQ4 1:0600Turnover on downs17–24
CLEQ4 1:0547Turnover on downs17–24
LVQ4 0:2900End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy21/4521520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty11353.20
Colt McCoy4164.00
Peyton Hillis6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Little612720
Benjamin Watson38350
Josh Cribbs25300
Mohamed Massaquoi37301
Montario Hardesty24180
Evan Moore34160
Alex Smith23141
Peyton Hillis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.07

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.