2018 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

40

Model margin

-3.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.240
  • 44.2%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.193
  • 11.2%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +7.30CPOE-7.13
  • 38.7%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 2.23Points / drive0.92
  • 1.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00537Punt0–0
ARIQ1 11:2252Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:06662Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 6:0911Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 6:0336Missed field goal7–0
ARIQ1 4:341268Field goal7–3
SEAQ2 14:0439Punt7–3
ARIQ2 11:5341Punt7–3
SEAQ2 9:25724Missed field goal7–3
ARIQ2 5:24836Touchdown7–10
SEAQ2 1:52830Turnover on downs7–10
ARIQ2 0:30413Missed field goal7–10
ARIQ3 15:0039Punt7–10
SEAQ3 12:451366Field goal10–10
ARIQ3 4:5930Punt10–10
SEAQ3 3:19839Touchdown17–10
ARIQ3 1:0044Punt17–10
SEAQ4 14:03420Punt17–10
ARIQ4 11:38580Touchdown17–17
SEAQ4 8:5937Punt17–17
ARIQ4 7:111149Missed field goal17–17
SEAQ4 1:50531Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/2617200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis211014.82
Rashaad Penny9495.40
Russell Wilson4215.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett56530
Doug Baldwin57410
David Moore22390
Mike Davis44230
Nick Vannett1260
Brandon Marshall1350
Will Dissly1150

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen15/2718010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson22713.21
Josh Rosen2136.50
Christian Kirk177.00
Chase Edmonds310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricky Seals-Jones24520
David Johnson34410
Larry Fitzgerald37280
Christian Kirk45280
Chad Williams13221
J.J. Nelson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.64