Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
-3.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.240
- 44.2%Success rate35.6%
- +0.208EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.0%
- +7.30CPOE-7.13
- 38.7%Third-down rate29.0%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.23Points / drive0.92
- 1.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/26 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Rashaad Penny | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 15/27 | 180 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.64