Closing spread
SF -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play-0.019
- 35.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.135
- 6.0%Explosive rate11.4%
- -7.13CPOE-2.68
- 29.0%Third-down rate37.2%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 0.92Points / drive1.66
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 10/25 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 4 | 85 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 34/54 | 349 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 83 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 13 | 47 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Victor Bolden | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Cole Wick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13