2018 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

28·18

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.240EPA / play-0.019
  • 35.6%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.135
  • 6.0%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -7.13CPOE-2.68
  • 29.0%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 0.92Points / drive1.66
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
SFQ1 15:00974Touchdown0–6
ARIQ1 9:49175Touchdown7–6
SFQ1 9:3924Turnover7–6
ARIQ1 8:2133Punt7–6
SFQ1 7:2146Punt7–6
ARIQ1 5:31516Punt7–6
SFQ1 3:00966Turnover7–6
ARIQ2 13:18418Touchdown14–6
SFQ2 11:0031Punt14–6
ARIQ2 9:31411Punt14–6
SFQ2 7:38713Punt14–6
ARIQ2 5:2337Punt14–6
SFQ2 3:46928Punt14–6
ARIQ2 0:43439End of half14–6
ARIQ3 15:0032Punt14–6
SFQ3 13:03935Turnover14–6
ARIQ3 8:46615Punt14–6
SFQ3 6:191263Missed field goal14–6
ARIQ4 14:5268Punt14–6
SFQ4 12:371488Touchdown14–12
ARIQ4 6:5133Punt14–12
SFQ4 5:503-9Opp touchdown21–12
SFQ4 4:3352Turnover21–12
ARIQ4 3:48526Touchdown28–12
SFQ4 3:211076Touchdown28–18
ARIQ4 1:2900End of half28–18

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen10/2517010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson18553.12
Christian Kirk155.00
Chase Edmonds1-1-1.00
Josh Rosen3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk34851
Larry Fitzgerald23350
Chad Williams26230
David Johnson23160
Jermaine Gresham11110
Ricky Seals-Jones0500
Chase Edmonds0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard34/5434922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris18613.40
Matt Breida8567.00
Raheem Mostert5112.20
C.J. Beathard273.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle57830
Trent Taylor78611
Pierre Garcon513470
Kendrick Bourne47330
Alfred Morris34300
Victor Bolden14100
Richie James1170
Matt Breida1151
Cole Wick0100
Raheem Mostert11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.13