2018 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

9·12

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.009
  • 45.8%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.091
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.77CPOE-0.95
  • 45.4%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.75
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:00833Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:44415Turnover0–0
BALQ1 9:3337Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 8:371041Punt3–0
BALQ1 2:55433Punt3–0
CLEQ1 0:3933Punt3–0
BALQ2 13:21948Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 9:28536Punt3–0
BALQ2 7:2835Punt3–0
CLEQ2 6:0634Punt3–0
BALQ2 3:4533Punt3–0
CLEQ2 1:59678Touchdown3–6
BALQ2 0:40645Missed field goal3–6
CLEQ3 15:00618Punt3–6
BALQ3 11:45522Turnover3–6
CLEQ3 10:28730Field goal3–9
BALQ3 7:291363Field goal6–9
CLEQ3 0:53419Punt6–9
BALQ4 13:38627Punt6–9
CLEQ4 11:33512Punt6–9
BALQ4 9:19411Punt6–9
CLEQ4 7:28619Punt6–9
BALQ4 4:291052Field goal9–9
CLEQ4 0:52638Missed field goal9–9
BALQ4 0:05113End of half9–9
CLEOT36Punt9–9
BALOT948Punt9–9
CLEOT532Turnover on downs9–9
BALOT30Punt9–9
CLEOT665Field goal9–12

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco29/5629801
Lamar Jackson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins12594.90
Javorius Allen8344.30
Joe Flacco2136.50
Lamar Jackson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree612660
John Brown414580
Willie Snead57550
Javorius Allen68440
Chris Moore12200
Mark Andrews13160
Nick Boyle12100
Maxx Williams2280
Alex Collins1470
De'Lance Turner1170
Hayden Hurst1270

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield25/4334211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde17633.70
Duke Johnson5357.00
Baker Mayfield22311.50
Nick Chubb320.70
Rod Streater1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry511690
David Njoku610690
Rashard Higgins34661
Derrick Willies35610
Seth DeValve11260
Antonio Callaway35220
Carlos Hyde23140
Darren Fells1180
Duke Johnson1170
Nick Chubb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74