Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.009
- 45.8%Success rate42.8%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.091
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.77CPOE-0.95
- 45.4%Third-down rate35.9%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 2.01Points / drive1.75
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 29/56 | 298 | 0 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 12 | 66 | 0 |
| John Brown | 4 | 14 | 58 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Lance Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 25/43 | 342 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Derrick Willies | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74