Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Total
52
Model margin
+3.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 31-22-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/27 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.