Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Total
52
Model margin
+3.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutKarl JosephSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· DNP
- LimitedAmari CooperWRFoot
- LimitedBruce IrvinDEKnee
- LimitedGabe JacksonGPectoral
- LimitedKolton MillerTKnee
- LimitedMarshawn LynchRBAbdomen
- LimitedMaurice HurstDTShoulder
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Chargers
- OutJoey BosaDEFoot· DNP
- OutKyzir WhiteLBKnee· DNP
- OutTravis BenjaminWRFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulJoe BarksdaleTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRussell OkungTGroin· Limited
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–LAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:08 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 7:49 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:29 | 9 | 82 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:00 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 8:38 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:44 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:08 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:04 | 1 | 21 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 3:54 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LV | Q2 1:39 | 5 | 36 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:06 | 2 | 8 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 13:17 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| LV | Q3 6:05 | 10 | 62 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q3 1:05 | 10 | 121 | Touchdown | 3–26 |
| LV | Q4 9:42 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–26 |
| LAC | Q4 5:11 | 8 | 28 | End of half | 10–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 22/27 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.