2018 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·21

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.013
  • 47.5%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.39CPOE-3.54
  • 43.9%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.95
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:5130Punt0–0
PITQ1 9:5132Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:001154Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:361185Touchdown7–7
CINQ2 14:33732Punt7–7
PITQ2 10:1539Punt7–7
CINQ2 8:22622Punt7–7
PITQ2 5:25875Touchdown14–7
CINQ2 1:07544Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 0:1900End of half14–14
CINQ3 15:0044Punt14–14
PITQ3 13:141280Field goal17–14
CINQ3 6:5330Punt17–14
PITQ3 5:17741Punt17–14
CINQ3 0:101045Punt17–14
PITQ4 9:191087Field goal20–14
CINQ4 3:321061Touchdown20–21
PITQ4 1:18972Touchdown28–21
CINQ4 0:10213End of half28–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger32/4636910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner191115.82
Stevan Ridley122.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster7101110
Antonio Brown561051
Vance McDonald78680
Xavier Grimble22350
Jesse James57260
James Conner47180
Ryan Switzer1170
Justin Hunter0100
James Washington0100
Ben Roethlisberger11-10

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/4222920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon11645.81
Mark Walton2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green712850
Tyler Boyd79622
C.J. Uzomah67540
Joe Mixon47200
Alex Erickson2380
Cody Core0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.85