Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.013
- 47.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.39CPOE-3.54
- 43.9%Third-down rate36.9%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.23Points / drive1.95
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 32/46 | 369 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 19 | 111 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/42 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Mark Walton | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 9 | 62 | 2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.85